VAR got Balogun's red card badly wrong

What the analyst is saying

ESPN FC's former referee analyst has gone through the incident in detail and landed on a specific finding: the protocols governing how VAR intervenes in red-card decisions were not followed correctly. The claim isn't about whether the foul was bad or whether intent was there — it's procedural. The framework that exists to prevent exactly this kind of outcome wasn't applied as it should have been, and Balogun paid for it.

The analyst's verdict is clear-cut, but it's worth flagging: this is one source, one expert opinion. FIFA and the match officials have made no public acknowledgement of any error. Until there's an official response — or a second independent voice — the 'wrongful dismissal' conclusion sits at strong analyst opinion rather than confirmed fact.

Why it matters beyond the result

The USMNT won 2-0, so the scoreline isn't the issue. The issue is what comes next. A suspension carried into the knockout rounds means Balogun — one of the host nation's most dangerous attacking options — potentially misses a game the United States cannot afford to approach short-handed. Losing a striker of his profile to a red card that shouldn't have happened is damaging enough. Losing him to a red card that a former referee says was procedurally wrong is a different kind of problem entirely.

It also lands a broader question right in the middle of the tournament: if VAR protocols are being misapplied at the 2026 World Cup, how many other decisions are sitting on the same shaky ground?

Can FIFA do anything about it?

This is where it gets complicated. FIFA's disciplinary process does have mechanisms for reviewing red cards — but they are narrow, and the burden of proof is high. A suspension can be overturned if the card was a case of mistaken identity, for instance, but overturning a decision on the grounds that VAR procedure was misapplied is a much harder argument to run through official channels. There is no indication yet that the USMNT have formally appealed or that FIFA are reviewing the decision.

FIFA have not commented publicly. That silence, at a tournament they are hosting in the United States, will not go unnoticed.

The former referee making the case on ESPN FC didn't hedge. He laid out the protocol, explained where it was misapplied, and said Balogun should not have been sent off. Whether FIFA are listening is another matter entirely.