Brighton v Arsenal: leaders face form side at the Amex

What the numbers say

Arsenal have won all five of their recent matches, the latest a 4-2 victory over Ipswich. Brighton's form is livelier than their position suggests: they put five past Coventry and beat Manchester 3-2, and their goal difference of plus-eight is bettered only by the top two. A win here would take them to ten points from five; Arsenal would reach 15 from five with three points.

The head-to-head record tilts one way. Arsenal have won three of the last five meetings between the sides and drawn the other two; Brighton have not beaten them in any of those fixtures, which have produced ten goals in total. The most recent encounter ended 1-0.

The market view

The market-implied probability gives Arsenal a 56 per cent chance of victory, Brighton 20 per cent and the draw 24 per cent. That spread reflects both the gap in the table and the visitors' perfect recent run, but it leaves more room for the home side than the head-to-head alone would suggest. Brighton's goal difference and their two wins in three days mean the market is not writing them off, even if it expects Arsenal to take the points. The contrast sits in the fact that and; something has to give at the Amex, and the market thinks it will be the home side's momentum rather than the leaders' defensive structure.

Confirmed line-ups

Brighton & Hove Albion (4-2-3-1): Bart Verbruggen, Olivier Boscagli, Ferdi Kadioglu, Pascal Struijk, Luka Vuskovic, Diego Gómez, Yasin Ayari, Pascal Gross, Maxim De Cuyper, Chema Andrés, Charalambos Kostoulas

Arsenal (4-2-3-1): David Raya, Jurriën Timber, Riccardo Calafiori, Ezri Konsa, Gabriel Magalhães, Declan Rice, Bruno Guimarães, Martin Ødegaard, Christos Tzolis, Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.