Newcastle United v Hull City: visitors eye top-four stay

Form pulling in opposite directions

Newcastle won three of their opening four fixtures before losing 1-4 to Leeds last weekend. Hull have drawn three of their last five recent matches, including a 2-2 result against Chelsea, and sit on eight points from four games. A win would lift them to eleven points from five; defeat leaves them where they are. Newcastle are on five points and would reach eight with three here.

The five meetings between the clubs produced eighteen goals. Three of them finished level, Newcastle won the other two. The most recent, in 2018, was a 2-2 draw; the one before that, in 2016, finished 1-1.

What the market expects

The market-implied probability gives Newcastle a 59.0 per cent chance of winning at home, against 19.0 per cent for Hull and 22.0 per cent for the draw. That is a clear home preference, and it tracks the recent record: Newcastle have won three of their last five, Hull only one. The gap in the table runs the other way, but four games is a narrow sample and the market is backing the home side to close it. Where form and league position disagree this early, the probability follows the former.

Confirmed line-ups

Newcastle United (4-2-3-1): Lukás Hornícek, Sven Botman, Malick Thiaw, Lewis Hall, Jacob Murphy, Joe Willock, Sean Steur, Lewis Miley, Yoane Wissa, Matias Fernandez-Pardo, Harvey Barnes

Hull City (5-4-1): Konstantinos Tzolakis, John Egan, Lucas Herrington, Semi Ajayi, Ryan Giles, Lewie Coyle, Regan Slater, Matt Crooks, Sorba Thomas, Mohamed Belloumi, Oliver McBurnie

We are covering this one live. Follow it with us in the match centre for the line-ups when they land, the goals as they go in, and the full timeline.